Sunday, January 2, 2011

How Did My "Saw 3D" Prediction Hold Up?

A few months ago, I wrote an article using regression analysis, (let me rephrase, simple and not-so-scientific regression analysis) to predict the box office results of the seventh Saw movie, "Saw 3D". The quantitative model predicted a gross of $17,047,984 in line with the diminishing returns witnessed with each of the last five sequels. But I disregarded this figure in favor of a vague prediction that the film would be much more successful than that, due to its being released in 3D. As it turns out, my vague and non-commital prediction came true. Saw 3D grossed $45,710,178, which was about 20 million dollars more than its non-3D predecessor, and much more than the model predicted. This movie bucked the trend of diminishing marginal returns for sequels and the introduction of 3D into the franchise is probably the reason.
So does this mean that new Saw movies will be successful as long as they are released in 3D? No. 3D film itself will probably succumb to diminishing marginal returns soon, and by the time halloween rolls around this year, experience may have shown that the 3D fad is as dead as John the Jigsaw Killer. In which case it may be more profitable to take this franchise straight to DVD.

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